Quarterly Revenue Has Tripled in Seven Quarters. Two Brazilian Royalties Supply Nearly Half. The Debt Is Gone, and the Share Count Is Up 36%.

Gold Royalty Corp. holds 264 royalty and streaming interests on mines and projects that other companies own, ten of them on cash-flowing assets. Third-quarter revenue rose 147% to $10.2M, gold equivalent ounces rose 103% to 2,689, and net income was $3.8M against a loss a year earlier. Two Brazilian royalties, Borborema and Pedra Branca, supplied 45% of nine-month reported revenue, and a copper stream in Bosnia another 18%. The debt is gone and the $125M credit facility is undrawn, but the share count rose 36% in seven quarters along the way. Management's 2030 outlook counts on new production from projects still in development.

Analysis

Gold Royalty Corp. is a precious metals royalty and streaming company based in Vancouver, incorporated under the Canada Business Corporations Act in June 2020. Its shares began trading on the NYSE American on March 9, 2021, after a $90M initial public offering. It owns rights to a share of the metal or revenue from mines that others operate. In 2021 it acquired Ely Gold Royalties for 30,902,176 shares and $65M in cash, and Golden Valley Mines and Abitibi Royalties for share consideration of about $306M. As a foreign private issuer it files an annual report on Form 20-F and quarterly results on Form 6-K.

The third quarter of 2026 is why the desk is writing now. On November 4 the company reported revenue of $10.2M for the quarter ended September 30, up 147% from $4.1M, and net income of $3.8M, or $0.02 per share, against a loss of $1.1M. Gold equivalent ounces, or GEOs, its measure of attributable output, rose 103% to 2,689. Operating cash flow was $7.5M against $2.4M, and adjusted EBITDA was $9.0M against $2.5M. The company ended the quarter with $21.0M of cash, no debt and an undrawn $125M credit facility, and reaffirmed 2026 guidance of 7,500 to 9,300 GEOs.

The Human Translation: Gold Royalty does not dig anything. It paid miners and earlier owners up front for the right to a slice of future output, usually a percentage of the sales value of the gold or copper from a particular mine. When those mines produce and prices are high, cash arrives with almost no costs attached. Ten of its interests pay today, and two mines in Brazil supply about half of the money. Most of its 264 interests sit on projects that are not yet built.

The model is simple to state. A net smelter return royalty, or NSR, pays the holder a fixed percentage of what a mine receives for its metal after smelting and refining charges, and the holder bears none of the mining or construction costs. A net profit interest pays a share of profit, so it pays later and less predictably. A stream buys future metal: a deposit up front, then a fixed fraction of the spot price per unit delivered. Nearly all of Gold Royalty's cost of sales is the payment on its one stream, $1.3M in nine months, about 5.5% of revenue on the desk's arithmetic. It does not report a cash cost per ounce. GEOs are revenue, land agreement proceeds and interest divided by the quarter's average gold price.

The portfolio has grown in number faster than in paying assets. The 2024 annual report counted 248 interests with seven cash-flowing, the 2025 report 258 in eight countries with eight cash-flowing, and the September 2026 report 264 with ten. Ely Gold brought a second business, which the company calls its royalty generator model: it options or sells mineral properties to mining companies and keeps a royalty. That model has created 60 royalties since 2021, with 39 properties under land agreements and six under lease. Land agreement proceeds were $1.1M in the third quarter; management said on the call that they are lumpy.

Borborema is the largest contributor. A subsidiary of Aura Minerals operates the gold mine in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. Gold Royalty held a 2.0% NSR that falls to 0.5% after 725,000 ounces. In January 2026 it bought a further royalty from Dundee Corporation, 1.5% on the first 1.5 million ounces and 1.0% up to 2.0 million, for $30M in cash and 3,571,429 shares valued at $15.0M. Taurus Mining Royalty Fund paid $22.5M for 49.9978% of the partnership that holds it, leaving Gold Royalty an effective 2.75% NSR. A $10M gold-linked loan to Borborema Inc., made in December 2023, pays 110 ounces of gold a quarter. Aura reported preliminary third-quarter production of 22,842 GEOs, a quarterly record for the mine. Borborema supplied 28% of nine-month revenue, land agreement proceeds and interest, a figure that includes the loan interest and the company's share of the partnership's royalty revenue; on reported revenue alone its share was 20% on the desk's arithmetic.

Pedra Branca is the second largest. In December 2025 the company bought an existing royalty on the copper and gold mine in Pará state, Brazil, from BlackRock World Mining Trust for $70M in cash, and sold 25,875,000 shares for $103.5M to help fund it. It is a 25% NSR on gold and a 2% NSR on copper and other products from Pedra Branca East and West, with no step-downs. A BHP subsidiary operated the mine until April 2, 2026, when BHP completed the sale of it and its other Carajás copper assets, agreed in August 2025, to a subsidiary of CoreX Holding. Pedra Branca supplied $5.9M of reported revenue in the first nine months of 2026, 25% of the total. The company's broader nine-month figure of $7.2M also counts $1.3M from residual ore produced in the fourth quarter of 2025, which was due to the former royalty holder.

Vareš is the company's one stream and its main copper exposure. Gold Royalty bought it from an Orion Mine Finance fund in June 2024 for $50M, $45M in cash and 2,906,977 shares, funded by its credit facility and an offering of units that raised about $30M, each unit a share and a 36-month warrant exercisable at $2.25. The stream covers 100% of copper from the Rupice deposit area in Bosnia and Herzegovina, operated by DPM Metals, with effective payable copper fixed at 24.5%; Gold Royalty pays 30% of the spot copper price on delivery. Management said on the call that commercial production began on August 10. Vareš supplied $2.4M in the third quarter, about double a year earlier, and $4.4M for nine months.

The Canadian and Mexican royalties are smaller. Côté Gold in Ontario, majority owned and operated by IAMGOLD, carries a 0.75% NSR over its southern portion; it produced 399,800 ounces on a 100% basis in 2025, is guided to 390,000 to 440,000 in 2026, and supplied $3.4M in nine months. Borden, an Ontario underground mine owned by Discovery Mining, carries a 0.5% NSR on its southeastern portion and supplied $1.3M. A 3.0% NSR on portions of Agnico Eagle's Canadian Malartic and Odyssey mines in Québec pays little so far; Agnico expects first production through Odyssey's Shaft #1 in the second quarter of 2027. The company also holds a 1.0% NSR on part of Cozamin in Zacatecas, Mexico, which Capstone Copper has agreed to sell to Luca Mining for up to $385M.

The growth case rests on projects that do not pay yet. At REN in Nevada, operated by Barrick for Nevada Gold Mines, the company holds an indirect 1.6875% NSR, raised by 0.1875% for $6.25M in cash in June, and a 3.5% net profit interest. Barrick expects about 140,000 ounces a year at full production; management said on the call that its base case, at current gold prices, has the profit interest paying from early 2028, after the operator recovers its invested capital. Equinox Gold plans first gold in 2028 at South Railroad, where the company holds a 0.44% NSR on part of the project. First Majestic expects Jerritt Canyon to restart in the second half of 2027. In March, management set a 2030 outlook of 28,000 to 34,000 GEOs at $3,500 gold and $5.00 copper, about six times 2025 at the midpoint on the desk's arithmetic.

The third-quarter income statement shows how little sits between royalty revenue and profit. On $10.2M of revenue, cost of sales was $0.7M and depletion, the non-cash write-down of royalty assets as metal is mined, was $2.5M. General and administrative costs were $1.9M and share-based compensation $0.6M, partly offset by a $0.5M share of profit from the Borborema partnership, leaving operating income of $5.0M against $0.6M. Finance costs fell to $0.2M from $2.3M after the debt was retired. Deferred tax expense was $1.6M, mainly from using non-capital losses, and current tax was $16,000. Adjusted EBITDA of $9.0M was 78% of revenue, land agreement proceeds and interest on the desk's arithmetic, against 55% a year earlier.

The ounce count needs care. GEOs rose 103% in the quarter while revenue, land agreement proceeds and interest rose 151%, and the gap is the gold price, which averaged $4,266 against $3,456 a year earlier. Because GEOs divide dollars by the gold price, they rise less than revenue when gold climbs. Gold averaged $4,875, $4,516 and $4,266 in the first three quarters of 2026, each below the $5,150 that guidance assumes. Nine-month GEOs were 6,366, 76% of the 8,400 midpoint. On the desk's arithmetic, the fourth quarter needs 1,134 GEOs to reach the low end and 2,934 to reach the top. Management said on the call that the year could end at the higher end, depending on realized gold prices, and that lower gold prices help the GEO count because non-gold revenue, land agreement proceeds and interest then convert into more ounces.

The annual record shows a company that was small until recently. Revenue was $10.1M in 2024 and $15.6M in 2025, up 55%, while GEOs fell 5% to 5,173 from 5,462 as the gold price rose. The company lost $3.4M in 2024 and $4.1M in 2025, the latter after a $4.2M partial make-whole payment on its convertible debentures. Operating cash flow was $2.5M in 2024 and $6.2M in 2025. The first nine months of 2026 changed the picture: revenue of $24.2M was already 55% above all of 2025, net income was $7.4M against a loss of $3.2M, and operating cash flow was $15.7M against $6.0M.

The balance sheet was rebuilt in late 2025. At September 30, 2025, the company carried $50.8M of debt, including $40M of 10% convertible debentures issued in December 2023, $30M to Queen's Road Capital and $10M to Taurus. On November 25, 2025, it redeemed them early; holders converted at $1.75 per share, and a partial make-whole covering interest to December 2026 was paid 70% in cash and 30% in shares, for 23,288,896 shares in all. The credit facility was repaid in the fourth quarter and in February 2026 enlarged to $125M with a $25M accordion, at SOFR plus 2.25% to 3.25%, maturing in November 2028. Finance costs fell to $0.7M for nine months from $6.7M.

Growth has been paid for largely in shares. Shares outstanding rose from 170,205,124 at the end of 2024 to 232,189,568 at September 30, 2026, up 36% on the desk's arithmetic. The debenture conversion added 23.3 million, the December 2025 offering 25.9 million, the Borborema purchase 3.6 million, and option, warrant and share unit issuances 4.1 million in the first nine months of 2026. It spent $37.9M of cash on acquisitions in nine months, mainly $30M for Borborema and $6.25M for REN; it drew $22.5M on the facility for Borborema and repaid it, and Taurus paid $22.5M for its share. At November 4, 14,514,527 warrants at $2.25, 5,214,524 options and 1,825,335 share units were outstanding against 232,317,568 shares, which would add 9% on the desk's arithmetic.

Capital returns are under discussion, not in place. The company pays no dividend; its December 2025 prospectus said it intends to retain earnings, and the 20-F notes that facility covenants limit dividends and buybacks. Chairman and chief executive David Garofalo wrote in the release of "the prospect of cash returns to shareholders," and management said on the call that the board is actively considering a capital return policy and that the balance sheet could support acquisitions of up to about $200M. Garofalo, in charge since August 2020, was previously chief executive of Goldcorp and of Hudbay Minerals and chief financial officer of Agnico Eagle. Andrew Gubbels is chief financial officer. Lead independent director Warren Gilman chairs Queen's Road Capital and abstained when the board approved the debenture redemption.

Concentration is the first risk the numbers show. Four assets supplied 79.7% of 2025 revenue: Côté 27.1%, Borborema 23.3%, Vareš 20.7% and Cozamin 8.6%. In the first nine months of 2026, Borborema, Pedra Branca, Vareš and Côté supplied 77% of reported revenue, and the two Brazilian royalties alone 45%, or about half once Borborema loan interest and partnership income are counted. Each rests on one operator, and two have changed or are changing hands: BHP sold Pedra Branca to CoreX in April 2026, and Capstone is selling Cozamin to Luca Mining, with closing expected in the fourth quarter. Taurus co-owns the added Borborema royalty under a mutual cooperation agreement and was a debenture holder. Aura holds a right to buy back 0.5% of the Borborema NSR for $2.5M after the earlier of 2,250,000 ounces or 2050.

The filings name the other risks plainly. Revenue is directly tied to metal prices and particularly sensitive to gold. The company cannot control the mines it relies on, and its value depends on non-producing interests reaching production on schedule; REN, Odyssey, Jerritt Canyon and South Railroad carry operator timelines in 2027 and 2028. At Vareš, the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina set a six-month period to review challenged acts, which management said concern state-owned land including the concession; DPM says operations continue as normal. The 20-F says the company may issue shares or convertible securities to fund acquisitions.

The scenario map has three branches. In the first, Vareš reaches the 850,000-tonne annual rate DPM targets, Borborema and Pedra Branca hold near third-quarter levels, and REN, Odyssey and Jerritt Canyon start on the operators' 2027 schedules; GEOs move toward the 2030 outlook and the board sets a capital return policy. In the second, development timelines slip, so GEOs grow more slowly than management describes, and a lower gold price cuts revenue even as it converts non-gold revenue into more GEOs. In the third, a setback at Borborema, Pedra Branca or Vareš, or an adverse result from the Bosnian court review, removes a large share of cash flow, and growth again depends on issuing shares.

The checkpoint set, stated fully. First, full-year 2026 GEOs against the 7,500 to 9,300 guidance, which requires 1,134 to 2,934 in the fourth quarter. Second, the first 2027 guidance, and how much of it management assigns to Vareš at a full year of production. Third, the outcome of the Bosnian Constitutional Court review. Fourth, the closing of the Cozamin sale to Luca Mining and any new mine plans under CoreX at Pedra Branca and Luca Mining at Cozamin. Fifth, REN reaching production and the first payments under the 3.5% profit interest, base-cased for early 2028. Sixth, first production through Odyssey's Shaft #1 in the second quarter of 2027. Seventh, any capital return policy, and whether the next acquisition is paid for in cash, debt or shares.

The Human Translation

Gold Royalty does not run mines. It paid miners and earlier owners up front for the right to a percentage of what particular mines sell, and in one case to buy copper at a fixed fraction of its price. When those mines produce and prices are high, cash arrives with almost no costs attached. Ten mines pay it today, and two in Brazil supply about half of the money. Most of its 264 interests are on projects that are not yet built.

Bottom Line

Watch full-year GEOs against the 7,500 to 9,300 guidance, then the first 2027 guidance and how much it assigns to Vareš at full rate. Watch the Bosnian court review, the Cozamin sale and the new owners' plans at Pedra Branca and Cozamin, and REN's commissioning in 2027. Watch whether the board adopts a capital return policy and how the next acquisition is paid for.

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