The second half's first full week handed leadership back to the top of the cap table. Thursday the Dow rose 0.3% to 52,478.41, the Nasdaq gained 1.3% to 26,206.89 as the AI trade regained momentum, and the S&P 500 added 0.8% to 7,543.64, with jobless claims at 215,000 and June existing home sales missing at 4.09 million units. Friday South Korean memory giant SK Hynix debuted on the Nasdaq after raising about $26.5 billion in one of the largest initial public offerings in history; the stock opened at $170 and closed its first session up more than 13%, while Nvidia rose about 4%. Meta gained about 6% Friday to finish the week up almost 15%, its best week since early 2024 and a 22% run in ten sessions, on plans to manufacture a custom AI chip starting in September and a target of 14 gigawatts of computing power by 2027. For the five sessions the S&P 500 gained 1.23% to 7,575.39, the Nasdaq rose 1.74% to 26,281.61, the Dow slipped 0.5% to 52,637.01, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.61%. Breadth was the story underneath: eight of eleven sectors declined, with technology up about 3% and energy up 3.1% the only meaningful winners, as growth and momentum led while value and equal-weight lagged. The ceasefire broke and crude rose 4.6% to $71.61, Treasury yields held above 4.5% after hawkish June Fed minutes, and the index closed roughly 40 points from its June 2 record of 7,620.90. The calendar did the rest of the talking: June CPI, five major bank reports, and the chair's first congressional testimony all landed the following Tuesday.
This desk spent five straight editions tracking the breadth expansion, so it owes the counter-week the same ink. The marginal dollar went home to mega-cap technology: momentum and growth led, value and equal-weight lagged, and small caps sat out a positive index week entirely. Eight of eleven sectors fell while the index rose 1.23%, which is the narrowest winning week since the spring. One week does not break a rotation thesis. Ignoring it would break something more important, which is the standard this desk holds itself to. The read is that rotation is a regime, not a straight line, and the second half opened with the crowded trade reasserting itself.
The supply theme delivered its next installment. SK Hynix raising $26.5 billion extends the mega-issuance drain this desk has tracked since the SpaceX S-1: another standing claim on the marginal equity dollar, priced into demand strong enough to absorb it in a single session and close 13% higher. The macro tell was the calendar compressing. A broken ceasefire put oil and the July inflation math back in play, hawkish June minutes kept a September hike alive, and the coming Tuesday stacked CPI, five bank prints, and the chair in front of Congress into one market open. Weeks like this are the pause before the tape picks a direction, and the quality screen does not change while it waits.
Coverage ledger: BTBT rides the AI infrastructure bid that Meta's chip plan extended this week. CLPS needs the breadth that just took a week off; the discount does not close in a narrow tape, which is the patience part of the thesis. GLMD and ACON hold the cash floors that a ten-year above 4.5% keeps relevant. Full dossiers in the research library.