The weekly roundup.

The Ten-Year Closes at 5.31%. The S&P 500 Sets a Record on Broad Gains. The Russell Falls for a Fifth Straight Week.

The ten-year closed Monday at 5.31%, its highest since 2002, and the S&P 500 set a record as nine of eleven sectors rose and utilities led. The September minutes showed all 19 participants behind the hike. Brent rose to $104.72 on tanker attacks and a Gulf hurricane. The Russell 2000 fell 0.9%, its fifth straight weekly loss.

Payrolls Add 29,000. The Hike Odds Collapse. The Ten-Year Closes at Its Highest Since 2002 Anyway.

September payrolls rose 29,000 against a consensus near 85,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, cutting the odds of an October hike to about 23%. August core PCE came in at 3.0%. The ten-year still closed at its highest since 2002 and finished at 5.28%. The Russell 2000 slipped 0.2%, edging the S&P 500 for the first time in four weeks.

The Five-Year Clears 5%. Business Activity Runs Its Hottest in Five Years. The Nasdaq Sets Records and the Russell Still Falls.

S&P Global's flash September PMIs came in at 57.0 for manufacturing and 58.7 for services, a five-year high for the composite, and the five-year Treasury yield cleared 5% for the first time since 2007. The ten-year finished the week at 5.18% and the thirty-year reached 5.39%. The Nasdaq rose 2.1% and set records while the Russell 2000 fell 0.8%, the only major index lower.

The Hike Was Priced. The Ten-Year Clears 5%. The Dow Posts Its Worst Week Since March.

The Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%, unanimously, with 16 of 18 officials projecting at least one more hike this year. The bigger number was the ten-year Treasury yield, which cleared 5% for the first time since July 2007 and finished the week at 5.00%. The Dow fell 1.7%, its worst week since March, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.5%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.7%.

Oil Wrote the Week. The Russell Gives Up 2.4%. The Long End Touches 4.95%.

Brent settled above $107 and finished the week up about 9%, the ten-year yield touched 4.95% and the thirty-year 5.36%, and August CPI came in at 3.4% with core at 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021. The Russell 2000 fell 2.4% against 0.8% for the S&P 500. Futures put a hike at Wednesday's meeting near 90%.

The Negative Print Never Happened. Payrolls Triple the Call. The Two-Year Prices the Hike.

August payrolls rose 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, and July was revised from a loss of 23,000 jobs to a gain of 21,000, so the negative print that anchored the August rally never happened. The two-year yield climbed to 4.37%, its highest since January 2025, and the market moved to a 58% probability of a hike on September 16. Fresh U.S. strikes on Iran pushed Brent above $95 and set a record diesel price in the same week.

Warsh Says Work To Do. The Short End Jumps, the Long End Finally Backs Down.

July headline PCE ran hot at 3.7% against a 3.6% consensus while core held in line at 3.3%, and second-quarter GDP was revised down to 1.5%. Then Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote as chair to say inflation is running too high and the Fed still has work to do. The two-year yield jumped more than six basis points to 4.298% while the thirty-year eased to 5.168%, flattening the curve on credibility rather than easing.

The Long End Breaks Loose. Walmart Cracks. The Bond Market Sets the Price.

The thirty-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2007 and the whole tape gave ground with it: the S&P 500 fell 1.4% to snap a three-week advance, the Nasdaq lost 2%, and semiconductors dropped more than 4%. Hawkish July minutes and a Treasury buyback that failed to hold yields down framed the week, then Walmart posted a comparable sales miss and cut guidance, closing down roughly 11% in its worst week since 2022.

The Hike Dies. Small Caps Print Records. The Strait Closes Again.

July CPI landed in line at 3.4% and PPI printed flat, killing the September hike: the Russell 2000 hit record highs three times, closing at 3,068.42, while the S&P 500 added 0.4% for a third straight weekly gain. Underneath it, July retail sales fell 0.6%, the steepest drop in over a year, and the United States resumed the Strait of Hormuz blockade, sending energy up 7.8% and crude to $82.40.

Payrolls Go Negative. Records Print Anyway. The Chips Come Back.

July payrolls printed minus 23,000 against expectations near plus 80,000 and the market read it as the end of the September hike case: the S&P 500 closed its best week since mid-April at a record 7,757.64 while the Nasdaq gained 5.2% on a chip rebound. July CPI lands Wednesday.

Three Hawkish Dissents. Microsoft Adds $450B. The First Red July Since 2014.

The Fed held with three dissents in favor of a hike and the 10-year touched 4.73%. Microsoft added roughly $450B in a single session on Azure up 43%; Amazon rose 15%; Meta fell 9% on a miss. GDP grew 1.5% while quarterly price indexes ran above 5%. The majors gained over 1% on the week, and the S&P 500 still logged its first red July since 2014.

AI Spending Goes on Trial. Tesla Sheds 19%. Crude Surges 10%.

The market stopped rewarding AI capital spending on promises. Alphabet fell 7.8% after its first negative free cash flow as a public company and a $205B capex guide; Tesla lost 19%. Crude surged 9.6% to $89.30 on Gulf escalation, driving Treasury yields to 18-month highs. Eight of eleven sectors rose while the S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.1%.

CPI Breaks the Fever. Banks Print Records. Chips Enter a Bear.

June CPI fell 0.4% on the month, the largest drop since April 2020, taking the annual rate to 3.5% with core flat at 2.6%. Five major banks posted record results the same morning. Then the chip trade broke: the SOX fell 9.97% for the week and closed 20% off its record while renewed U.S. and Iran strikes drove crude up 13.3% to $81.16. Eight of eleven sectors still rose.

The Rotation Skips a Week. Meta Runs 15%. Another Mega-IPO Lands.

Leadership swung back to mega-cap tech: the S&P 500 gained 1.23% and the Nasdaq 1.74% while the Russell 2000 fell 0.61% and eight of eleven sectors declined. Meta ran almost 15% on a custom AI chip plan, SK Hynix raised about $26.5 billion in one of the largest IPOs in history, and a broken ceasefire lifted crude 4.6% into a stacked CPI and bank earnings week.

Warsh Takes the Chair. The Dow Clears 52,000. Oil Breaks $80.

Kevin Warsh chaired his first FOMC meeting and the Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% with a hawkish dot plot: nine of eighteen officials now see a 2026 hike. The Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time. Crude fell below $80 for the first time since March. In a holiday-shortened week the S&P 500 still gained 0.9%, its eleventh winning week in twelve.

Halftime Scoreboard. Small Caps Best Since 1991. The Chip Trade Exhales.

The first half closed with the strongest quarter since 2020: the S&P 500 gained 14.87% in Q2 and 9.55% for the half, the Nasdaq rose 21.41% for the quarter, and the Russell 2000 added more than 21% in six months, its best first half since 1991. The SOX fell 6.7% Wednesday after its best quarter in history. June payrolls printed 57,000, half of expectations, cooling rate-hike odds.

The Russell Crosses 3,000. SpaceX Sags. OpenAI Blinks on Its IPO.

The Russell 2000 closed above 3,000 for the first time ever Monday, up 2.12% on rotation into small caps even as mega-cap tech sold off. The Nasdaq fell 4.6% on the week as SpaceX kept sliding and OpenAI reportedly weighed delaying its IPO to 2027. PCE printed 4.1%, the hottest in three years. Oil fell another 5% as the Strait of Hormuz reopened.

CPI Prints 4.2%. The Dow Drops 950. SpaceX Opens the IPO Era.

May CPI came in at 4.2% year over year, the hottest in three years, and the Dow fell 950 points Wednesday as U.S. and Iran strikes resumed. Friday SpaceX priced the largest IPO in history at $135, raised about $75 billion, and closed its first session at $160.95, up 19%, near a $2.1 trillion valuation.

The Streak Dies at Nine. Nasdaq Sheds 4.7%. Supply Shows Up.

Monday opened June with records: S&P 7,599.96, Nasdaq 27,086.81, Dow 51,078.88, with Nvidia up 6% on a new PC chip. Then the AI trade unwound. The Nasdaq fell 4.68% for the week, the S&P posted its first weekly loss since March, and a strong May payrolls report pushed yields higher Friday.

Nine Straight. Records Shrug a Hot PCE. Dell Goes Vertical.

A holiday-shortened week produced record closes on four straight days. The S&P 500 gained 1.4% for a ninth consecutive weekly advance, the first nine-week streak since December 2023. Dell jumped about 30% Friday on AI server demand. Crude fell to $87.93 and the Russell 2000 touched an all-time high.

Yields Bite. Nvidia Delivers. The Russell Takes the Week.

The 10-year hit a one-year high Monday and the S&P 500 fell a third straight session. Nvidia beat Wednesday as SpaceX filed its S-1. The Russell 2000 jumped 2.56% Thursday and finished the week up 2.7%. The S&P gained 0.9% for an eighth consecutive weekly advance.

Records Thursday. Yields Break 5%. Russell 2000 Sells Friday.

The S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high of 7,501.24 on Thursday, the Dow reclaimed 50,000 for the first time since February 11, and the Nasdaq Composite closed at a new record of 26,635. Cisco drove the Thursday tape with.

Intel-Apple Chip Deal. Tech +7%. Energy Capitulates.

The S&P 500 added 2.3% to a fresh all-time closing high at 7,398.93, marking a sixth consecutive week of gains and lifting year-to-date returns to 8.1%. The advance came on deal news and earnings. Intel and Apple.

S&P Hits Records. Nasdaq Crosses 25,000. Breadth Stays Narrow.

The S&P 500 finished up roughly 1% and notched fresh all-time closing highs, capping one of the strongest Aprils since 2020. The Nasdaq pushed above 25,000 for the first time while the Dow lagged. The Russell 2000 added.

Semiconductor Leadership. Breadth Narrows. Intel Breaks Records.

The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to fresh highs, but the rally lost breadth after three weeks of broad gains. The Nasdaq gained 1.5% while the Dow slipped 0.4%. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Intel, and Micron drove nearly all of the S&P.

Hormuz Reopens. Risk-On Rally. Defense Sells the Relief.

The week opened with Trump's naval blockade announcement against Iranian ports and a risk-off tone as markets priced supply disruption risk in the Strait of Hormuz. It closed with Iran's foreign minister declaring the.

Ceasefire Rally. S&P Best Week of 2026. Oil Crashes 15%.

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement opened the Strait of Hormuz corridor and triggered the sharpest weekly unwind of the geopolitical premium this year. Brent dropped from above $110 to the mid-90s in three sessions.

Softer PPI Meets Elevated Crude. Dispersion Widens.

Core PPI came in below consensus, offering modest relief on the rate-hike side of the stagflation debate. Brent held well above pre-war levels despite consolidation from the weekly highs. The tape traded as a.

Hormuz Closure. Oil +70% From Pre-War. Dispersion Explodes.

Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure and force majeure declarations on foreign-owned oilfields sent Brent to its highest weekly close since the war began. Markets started pricing a possible Fed hike instead of cuts. S&P 500.

Third Straight Down Week. 2026 Lows. Oracle AI Cloud Bucks the Tape.

Equities logged a third straight down week as rapidly rising oil, Middle East headlines, and weak risk sentiment overshadowed mixed economic data. S&P 500 and Dow hit their lowest closes of 2026. Oracle reported an.

Stagflation Skew. Weak Payrolls Meet $120 Brent.

U.S. payrolls missed badly, with non-farm payrolls coming in at 78,000 versus 195,000 expected. Brent pushed above $120 following the Strait of Hormuz closure. The combination gave the tape a stagflation skew that.

Two Biotech Readouts in One Week. Very Different Outcomes.

Two Phase II readouts in the biotech space this week, with outcomes that illustrated exactly why position sizing in pre-revenue biotech is the most important decision you make before you make any other decision. One.

Bitcoin Decouples from Nasdaq. ETF Inflows Tell the Story.

Bitcoin surged 12 percent while the Nasdaq composite declined 1.8 percent. The correlation that made Bitcoin behave like a leveraged Nasdaq proxy for three years appears to be breaking down, at least temporarily, as.

Kazakhstan Uranium Export Restriction Changes the Supply Math.

Kazakhstan announced export restrictions on uranium oxide that immediately tightened the spot market. Kazakhstan supplies approximately 45 percent of global uranium. Any supply restriction from this geography is.

Bank Earnings Beat. NIM Compression Ahead.

The big bank earnings season opened with beats across the board on Q4 2025 results. JPMorgan posted record net income. Goldman Sachs reported investment banking revenue recovery. But the forward guidance told a.

Defense Budget Finalized. Which Micro-Caps Benefit Specifically.

The FY2026 defense budget was finalized at 895 billion dollars. The AI-enabled surveillance and medical technology procurement lines are the most relevant to the current micro-cap universe. MDAI and RVSN both saw.

New Year Rotation: Small Caps Open 2026 With a Statement.

The first full trading week of 2026 saw small caps outperform large caps by 340 basis points. Tax-loss selling pressure from December reverses, institutional managers deploy fresh capital into the overlooked corners of.

2025 Year in Review: What Micro-Cap Taught Us.

A year-end look at what actually worked and why. The theme of 2025 in micro-cap investing was straightforward in retrospect: profitability mattered, clean balance sheets mattered, domestic revenue mattered. Pre-revenue.

Holiday Week Moves: What Light Volume Tells You (And Does Not).

Holiday-week trading is a trap. Volume is 40 to 60 percent of normal. Moves in any direction should be treated with skepticism proportional to the volume discount. Three quality micro-caps moved significantly this week.